Every new information technology starts with similar promise and excitement. It begins small, garners attention, and expands. The world becomes enamored with it, and early adopters rush to predict a brighter future predicated upon its existence. Then something happens. The once promising and open new technology changes into one that is centrally controlled by a small number of loosely connected players. We’ve seen it happen repeatedly with every major technology from radio to television. In his book, “The Master Switch: The Rise and Fall of Information Empires,” author and “techno-anthropologist” Tim Wu calls this “The Cycle.” It is mandatory reading for anyone concerned with maintaining an Internet open and conducive to free exchange and entrepreneurial endeavors.
Wu states, “History shows a typical progression of information technologies: from somebody’s hobby to somebody’s industry; from jury-rigged contraption to slick production marvel; from freely accessible channel to one strictly controlled by a single corporation or cartel—from open to closed system. It is a progression so common as to seem inevitable, though it would hardly have seemed so at the dawn of any of the past century’s transformative technologies, whether telephony, radio, television, or film.”
The question raised by Wu’s book is must this necessarily happen to the Internet? Will we see the degeneration of the Internet into a closed system, controlled by just a few corporations and the government? Will Wu’s Cycle see the Internet become the harnessed property of cable and telcos? Sadly, the answer is probably. The other question is, is this a necessarily bad thing?
The Internet was arguably the most important technology to emerge from disparate yet related developments in the 20th century. There was no single inventor of the Internet. What we call “The Internet” today is the result of numerous interdisciplinary efforts. Though every new information and communications medium promises to do so, no other technology, not television, radio or even telephony, has done more to democratize education, entertainment, and the free exchange of knowledge, information and ideas. Not that it means much any more but the Internet was even nominated for a Nobel Peace Prize in 2010.
Television emerged at the beginning of the 20th century. It evolved to become a miraculous world carrier of information and entertainment. As predicted by Wu’s “Cycle,” it collapsed and was brought under the control of a very few networks. ABC, CBS, and NBC. This network triumvirate or cartel controlled television for decades. Even so, all that was required to witness a man walking on the moon, a war in Southeast Asia, and/or the barbaric treatment of people seeking their civil rights was an antennae. Television was the property of the networks, but it continued to transform the world. Nonetheless television viewers saw only what the networks and government censors allowed them to see. Television was still a miracle, but a closed one. Then cable television disrupted the communications landscape yet again.
The cycle is peculiar to information and communication technologies. The cycle seems to take into account that information “wants to be free,” and that we the people, want to talk to one another without governments and corporations intervening. Prior to cable, television programming was restricted to the big three networks and we saw only the content they blessed.
The advent of cable brought countless new broadcasters and relatively large amounts of new content to television. With cable, people had access to hundreds of channels. The idea of “narrowcasting” developed. Once again though, “the cycle” repeated. Numerous cable providers merged into behemoths. Consumer choice almost diminished to the point of no choice at all and again we accepted the lowest common denominator of content.
Television devolved into a pay-for-connection / pay-per-view / pay-to-play medium. As the technology advanced, cable companies grew in power and additional artificial limits were placed upon the availability of content. The quip “500 channels and nothing on” became cliché. What was once a promising medium for providing consumers with lots of new choices, deteriorated into a horrendously expensive, tiered, rights managed, pay-per-view, packaged, myopic one way wasteland of so called “reality.”
Television, radio, film, and telephony have all been through similar cycles and are now owned by a small number of very powerful conglomerates. What we can and cannot do with those media is strictly controlled by these corporations and the government.
Meanwhile the Internet has rapidly entered the first stages of its childhood. Suddenly esoteric ideas like hypertext, interactive online publishing and a truly global knowledge base have become reality. Unlike the aforementioned media, the Internet can handle everything including images, audio, video, and text. It is the proverbial mother of all information media. More importantly, unlike old broadcast media, the Internet is not one way. It is an omnidirectional network of networks where any person or group is free to communicate with any other.
People from all over the world use the Internet to communicate, work, and even play with one another, as the difference in networking vs. broad or narrowcasting has become evident. The Internet supports the storage, manipulation, and delivery of incomprehensible quantities of information to approximately 2 billion people, 24 hours per day, 365 days per year.
Though at first a novelty, the Internet is now considered indispensable by almost a third of the Earth’s population. The interactive network neutral nature of the Internet has turned it into more of a “place” than a medium. It is almost trite to say that it is where many of us literally live. Our lives are digitally interwoven by the Internet. The population of the Internet is greater than the populations of China and the United States combined. It is a vast “Metaverse,” a growing cyber-landscape of human production, consumption, and creative activity.
While television has turned living rooms into dumping grounds for the likes of Jersey Shore, innumerable housewives, American idols, and The Apprentice, the Internet has demonstrated that the mere ability to broadcast 140 character messages out to the meta, can literally topple governments. Clearly when we network, we are infinitely more powerful than when we simply consume a broadcast.
The Internet is poised to offer ever increasing developments including new HTML5 based websites, advanced location based services, evolving social media, storage-as-a-service, file sharing, video conferencing, virtual companies, telepresence, streaming movies, music, online gaming, telephony, photography, books, periodicals, software-as-a-service, cyber-activism, near field communications, and the intersection and mashup of some or all of the above. It’s an exciting time. We are on the verge of a whole new era of ubiquitous connectivity and cloud based services.
According to Padmasree Warrior, CTO of Cisco, it is expected that by 2013 there will be in excess of 1 trillion devices connected to the Internet. Traffic is expected to exceed 56 exabytes per month. 91% of that traffic is expected to be video. 66% of mobile traffic is expected to be video. It would be safe to define video as meaning not just movie or television type content but gaming and 3D virtual worlds as they become less distinguishable from reality.
This constantly expanding democratization effect of the Internet on Earth’s societies will also encompass delivery. Whereas the old world of computers was predicated upon Microsoft Windows compatibility, the new world will be open standards based. Rather than being forced to maintain Windows or Office compatibility, it will be required to be compatible with the Internet. Above all else, the predicted 1 trillion devices represent choice. Hardware and software developers will be free to create the most outstanding connectivity experience they can while adhering to open standards and APIs.
Consider the iPad app, “Flipboard.” Flipboard digests content from online publications, blogs, and social media. It then presents them in an interactive personal magazine format that can only be described as beautiful. In a technology world where such intelligent, creative and compelling design is the foundation upon which success is built, companies such as Apple and Flipboard are destined to succeed while organizations such as Microsoft struggle to reinvent themselves.
As “citizens of the Internet” we will choose the technology that suits and pleases us, not the technology that oligopolies force upon us. Standards, choice, and competition will rule, not coercion through market penetration. The Internet is preparing to finally deliver what we want, when we want it, where we want it, and however we want it. We are, as Padmasree Warrior puts it, heading into “the Internet of all things.”
Or are we?
The Internet is a work in progress. Despite its spectacular success, its future promise is by no means guaranteed. There is good reason to believe that the Internet has reached critical mass and that the historical pattern identified by Professor Wu and dubbed, “The Cycle,” is about to strike and strike hard. We are at that point where the Internet will shift from open to closed. Professor Wu’s description of the oscillating pattern makes it almost seem like a force of nature, though it is anything but natural.
As the Internet moves into adolescence, there is a very strong possibility that its growth will be severely stunted. While there seems to be no limit to what the Internet can do for the people of the world, there are those who look askance at the Internet and view it with fear, ignorance and concern. You need only ask yourself, who is challenged by the democratic nature of the Internet and who is threatened when consumers are presented with unprecedented choice, as it pertains to the consumption of media and entertainment? Obviously these are governments and old media corporations respectively.
Must we allow governments to strangle the Internet?
Governments including our own are already seeking to control the Internet. China is notorious for instituting policies and systems to block any traffic on the Internet that is critical of the government. Throughout the recent unrest in the Middle East, countries such as Egypt, Libya, Syria, and Iran routinely shutdown the Internet to prevent their citizens from communicating with one another and the world.
One of the primary assaults on Internet freedom will be coming from governments that want “kill switches” as well as other abilities to limit, monitor, filter, and block Internet traffic. Citizen vigilance in democratic nations is vital. Governments must not be given such control where people have the power to prevent it. If you believe that we are protected by the First Amendment, think again. The First Amendment did not prevent even the Obama Administration from seeking to establish an American Internet kill switch.
While some governments seek to maintain complete control over the Internet purely for reasons of power, the American government is different. Almost worse. In America and other Western nations such as the United Kingdom, government representatives often act out of pure ignorance and what sounds good. Who would be against a bill called, “Protecting Cyberspace as a National Asset?” That is the name of the Obama backed bill that attempted to give the executive branch the power to shutdown the Internet in America. In theory such power would only be used in an emergency. What constitutes an “emergency” however, is not definitive.
Government officials seeking to make decisions regarding the Internet are almost always attempting to legislate highly technical matters they are ill-equipped to understand. The impetus for such legislation is most often personal political gain and the resulting legislation is usually incongruous and discordant with the spirit and nature of the Internet.
There are currently, for instance, multiple versions of bills floating around Congress called “Do Not Track Bills.” They seek to prevent consumers from being tracked by their mobile devices without their consent. The bills are largely attention harvesting reactions to hysteria brought on by sensationalized reporting in the media.
Mobile phone makers are not tracking individuals!
They are gathering information from devices concerning nearby cell towers and WiFi hotspots. They are doing this in order to create accurate geo-location maps. The goal is to to provide better geo-location based services to mobile device users. There is nothing nefarious about this. In others words, Apple is not interested in Joe Consumer’s specific location. If however Joe launches a taxi summoning app on his iPhone, Apple would like to provide the most accurate possible data to that app so that it can say, “Here are the cab companies that service the area you are in.”
Poorly crafted legislation by political opportunists runs the risk of generating unintended consequences that squelch the development of services consumers would want. I.e. bad technology law blocks innovation. Most consumers would likely want their devices to provide the most accurate location based services possible. Yet due to the rush to legislate, this ability might become hampered in the future.
It should come as no surprise, that as people move into the Internet, governments will follow, seeking to perpetuate 19th and 20th century ideas of restraint, sovereignty, and wealth confiscation over a 21st century medium.
It cannot be stressed enough that it is the responsibility of the citizens of the metaverse to prevent their respective governments from gaining too much control over the Internet. In particular, those of us in free countries must educate ourselves and make it clear to our governments that they do not own or control the Internet, and that any attempt to do so will be contested in the voting booths and courts of the land. We the people must decide what legislation is necessary, and our representatives must carry out our directives. We have power here. We do not have to allow the Internet to fall victim to the cycle as far as the government is concerned.
Politicians and governments represent a danger to the open Internet for sure, however due to their lack of technical understanding, they are actually a secondary issue. They choke or turn off the Internet, just yet.
The most immediate threat comes from those who are extremely knowledgeable about the Internet, its underlying technologies, and the opportunities it presents. These are the core Internet service providers that deliver connectivity to businesses and the public. These are companies such as AT&T, Verizon, Comcast, and Time Warner. These are the companies that most of us get our stationary and/or wireless Internet connections from. Ironically, as our omnipresent cloud connected world develops, these are the organizations most likely to obstruct the continued evolution of the Internet as an open medium.
Core Internet service providers own large portions of infrastructure that allow the Internet to exist. They literally own the wires, in particular the wires that provide “last mile” connectivity. While no one “owns” the Internet, core service providers having control over so much infrastructure and literally millions upon millions of users are in a position to exercise ownership like control over massive portions of the Internet.
Like any other business institutions, core internet service providers are not evil. They are however amoral. They do not have a code of ethics, they have interests and unfortunately what is in the long term interests of the world, namely a free and open Internet, is not necessarily in the short or long term interests of core service providers. It should be noted the word “free” does not refer to cost, but to the flow of information without censorship or restriction. It is feared that in seeking to maximize profit, core Internet service providers will impose new self serving restrictions on the Internet. Such restrictions, should they come to pass, will have an overall negative effect on the Internet. They will stifle innovation and entrepreneurship, and bring us to the beginning of the closed and controlled Internet predicted by Tim Wu’s cycle.
It is very simple to determine what sorts of restrictions core service providers might institute.
- Tiered Services – Though much easier said than done, core Service Providers might create a “fast lanes” on the Internet for those businesses that can afford them. Google might pay to have its traffic prioritized, for instance. One issue here is that smaller companies with competing products will not have the money that a Google has and may never be able to compete. Right now, with the neutral nature of the Internet, a small company is treated exactly the same on the Internet as Google. If service providers are allowed to create fast lanes for some edge services, they will be in effect put into the position of deciding which businesses survive.
- Bandwidth Caps and Metered Internet – This is already in full swing. Previously consumers purchased a speed which was typically measured in bits per second from their ISP. There were no limits on how much data the consumer could download, only how fast they could download. Now, in addition to speed, core service providers are placing caps on how much can be downloaded. This comes as the nascent world of cloud services are becoming an everyday preference for consumers. Cloud storage and backup is a rapidly growing industry. Many businesses are beginning to shift local infrastructure to cloud base services such as applications and storage. In addition, cloud movie services such as NetFlix have experienced phenomenal growth and success. Bandwith caps and metered connections with punitive countermeasures will undoubtedly harm the emergent cloud services.Just recently AT&T announced a bandwidth cap of 150GB on DSL customers and 250GB on their more expensive Uverse product. Time Warner and Comcast have been experimenting with bandwidth caps in different geographical markets. Wireless companies are placing the most draconian restrictions of their customers of just a few gigabytes per month. It is estimated that already, 56% of American Internet connections are capped.
- Throttling – Internet Service Providers will likely look to throttling as a means of perniciously thwarting competition. ISPs often offer their own movie services via pay-per-view methods, not to mention their old media television products. Companies like NetFlix offer consumers greater choice for less money. Combine throttling with bandwidth caps and the future of NetFlix doesn’t look so great.
All of these types of anti-competitive practices offend the original end-to-end design of the Internet. If allowed, they will trigger the cycle and we will see a promising new technology become a closed and controlled medium. The core Internet service providers will have Opec like control over bandwidth. They will take bandwidth, which should be a commodity, and control it via artificial scarcity.
Opponents of such practices have championed legislation and FCC rules to prevent these sorts of things from happening. This typically refers to “Net Neutrality,” a phrase coincidentally coined by Tim Wu. Net Neutrality essentially says that Internet services providers will not tamper with the traffic on the Internet. It will remain free, unrestricted, and unblocked. All traffic on the Internet will be treated equally. Net Neutrality also blocks governments from restricting and tampering with the Internet and underscores the idea that the Internet is not the property of a corporation, a cartel, or any government.
It seems clear that this is the greater good. It’s not that simple though. What we must deal with the cost of Net Neutrality because when it comes down to it, Internet services providers really do own the wires. They have spent billions upon billions building their infrastructures. The question then becomes does the government, on behalf of the people it represents, have the right to tell these corporations what to do with their property?
Think of an Internet service provider as being like a giant market. Markets must decide which products they give shelf space to. Some products they may not even carry. They make this decision based not on being evil, but on what they believe is in their best interests as far as profitability. They are after all, businesses. Applying a similar concept to Net Neutrality to a market might say “You must carry all products and all products must have equal shelf space.” In effect the property of the market has been seized by the governing body. It can therefore be similarly argued that Net Neutrality is in effect seizing the property of Internet service providers.
There is no simple solution here. It would seem that the Internet is all but condemned to repeat Tim Wu’s cycle.
So where do we go?
In order to prevent the Internet from slipping into the cycle it is not unreasonable for the government to apply at least temporary Net Neutrality rules to block anticompetitive practices. Solutions that work for the public and the corporations should be sought. Such solutions should include more public Internet infrastructure being developed because as it stands, the core service providers have no measurable competition and in some municipalities they have sued and won, preventing local governments from developing high speed Internet connectivity! Other solutions can include tax incentives for core service providers to incentivise growing infrastructure and increasing bandwidth rather than restricting access.
If we don’t do anything, it is safe to assume that instead of being the great communications technology of the 21st century and beyond, the Internet will be a 21st century version of cable television, and we’ll be sitting staring at our service bills wondering how much more it will cost to get a package that contains Youtube or Google.
If these issues matter to you, please visit “Save The Internet.”